行業概況
1、定義
通(tong)信(xin)設備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業包括通(tong)信(xin)系統設備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業和通(tong)信(xin)終(zhong)端設備制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業。
通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)系統設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)制造業是(shi)指(zhi)固定或移(yi)動(dong)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)接入、傳輸、交換(huan)設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)等(deng)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)系統建(jian)設(she)(she)所需設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)的(de)制造,包括(kuo)為運營商及企業客(ke)戶提供傳輸網、接入網、承(cheng)載網等(deng)解決方案(an),通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)(duan)設(she)(she)備(bei)(bei)包括(kuo)音頻(pin)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)(duan)、圖(tu)形圖(tu)像通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)、視頻(pin)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)(duan)、數據通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)(duan)、多媒體通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)終(zhong)(zhong)端(duan)(duan)(duan)等(deng)。
2、產業鏈剖析
通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)上游(you)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)五(wu)金(jin)和(he)(he)(he)塑(su)料(liao)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)供應(ying)(ying)商(shang)、加工商(shang)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子元(yuan)器(qi)件(jian)(jian)供應(ying)(ying)商(shang)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)零部(bu)件(jian)(jian)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。其中(zhong):五(wu)金(jin)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)各類金(jin)屬緊固件(jian)(jian)、鈑(ban)金(jin)件(jian)(jian)、沖(chong)壓件(jian)(jian)和(he)(he)(he)切削件(jian)(jian)等(deng);塑(su)料(liao)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)ABS、尼(ni)龍等(deng)塑(su)料(liao)原料(liao)及(ji)(ji)其制(zhi)品;電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子元(yuan)器(qi)件(jian)(jian)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)阻、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)感等(deng)。目(mu)前這一(yi)(yi)領域上市企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)欣天科(ke)技(ji)、光迅科(ke)技(ji)、燦勤科(ke)技(ji)和(he)(he)(he)創遠儀器(qi)等(deng);作為產品原材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)供應(ying)(ying)商(shang),電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)子元(yuan)器(qi)件(jian)(jian)、塑(su)膠與(yu)五(wu)金(jin)結構件(jian)(jian)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)零部(bu)件(jian)(jian)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)對通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的影響主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)體現在采(cai)購成(cheng)本上。而(er)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)僅作為IT產業(ye)(ye)(ye)的一(yi)(yi)小部(bu)分,對上游(you)原材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)影響相(xiang)對有(you)(you)限。通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)游(you)作為整條產業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈的重要(yao)(yao)環節,主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)含核心(xin)網絡(luo)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)、接(jie)入網絡(luo)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)和(he)(he)(he)網絡(luo)終(zhong)端應(ying)(ying)用設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)的制(zhi)造(zao)等(deng);該領域目(mu)前的代表上市企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)有(you)(you)烽火(huo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)、長飛光纖(xian)、亨(heng)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)光電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)(he)(he)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)鼎互聯等(deng);通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的下游(you)產業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)運(yun)營商(shang)與(yu)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)集成(cheng)商(shang)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)政府與(yu)公共安全、公用事(shi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)以(yi)及(ji)(ji)工商(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)等(deng)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的具體應(ying)(ying)用。目(mu)前在電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)信(xin)(xin)(xin)運(yun)營服務方面,我國(guo)目(mu)前的電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)信(xin)(xin)(xin)運(yun)營服務市場呈三大電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)信(xin)(xin)(xin)運(yun)營商(shang)寡頭壟斷競爭(zheng);通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)(xin)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)集成(cheng)商(shang)主(zhu)要(yao)(yao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)括(kuo)(kuo)(kuo)中(zhong)興通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)訊(xun)等(deng)企(qi)(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。
行業發展現狀
1、通信(xin)設(she)備制造行業市場規模逐年遞(di)增(zeng)
根據(ju)(ju)《中國電子信息產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)統計(ji)年(nian)鑒》,2014-2019年(nian)全國規(gui)模以上(shang)通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)持續增(zeng)長。根據(ju)(ju)工信部,2020年(nian),通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)同比增(zeng)長4.7%,則通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)初(chu)步估計(ji)達39729億元。前瞻根據(ju)(ju)近(jin)年(nian)來我(wo)國通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)發展趨勢及營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)變化情況初(chu)步核算得到2021年(nian),我(wo)國通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)營(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)可達到近(jin)44000億元。
2、通信設(she)備制(zhi)造行業(ye)投(tou)資規模(mo)整體維持較高水(shui)平
近年(nian)來,我(wo)國(guo)通(tong)信(xin)設(she)備制(zhi)造行業(ye)(ye)投(tou)資(zi)規模不(bu)斷增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia),加(jia)速推進(jin)行業(ye)(ye)的(de)發展(zhan)和網絡通(tong)信(xin)的(de)全國(guo)化布局。2021-2022年(nian)我(wo)國(guo)通(tong)信(xin)行業(ye)(ye)固(gu)定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)整(zheng)體(ti)呈上升趨(qu)勢(shi),固(gu)定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)額增(zeng)(zeng)速有所下(xia)降(jiang)。截至2022年(nian)4月(yue)末,我(wo)國(guo)計算機、通(tong)信(xin)和其他電子(zi)設(she)備制(zhi)造業(ye)(ye)民間固(gu)定(ding)資(zi)產(chan)投(tou)資(zi)累計增(zeng)(zeng)長26.6%,受2022年(nian)以來全國(guo)多地(di)“奧密克戎”疫情反復(fu)影響,增(zeng)(zeng)速較(jiao)2021年(nian)同期下(xia)降(jiang)11.4%,環比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)4/6%,但整(zheng)體(ti)仍處(chu)于(yu)較(jiao)高(gao)水平。近年(nian)來,我(wo)國(guo)通(tong)信(xin)設(she)備制(zhi)造行業(ye)(ye)相關企(qi)業(ye)(ye)積極布局5G建設(she),為(wei)通(tong)信(xin)設(she)備制(zhi)造行業(ye)(ye)提供了良好的(de)發展(zhan)環境(jing)。
3、電話用戶總數和(he)移動電話用戶數分析
2013-2021年(nian)中(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)總數(shu)(shu)和移(yi)(yi)動電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)數(shu)(shu)總體(ti)呈增(zeng)加趨勢(shi)變(bian)動,其(qi)中(zhong)移(yi)(yi)動電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)數(shu)(shu)增(zeng)加量(liang)明顯。根據工信部數(shu)(shu)據,2021年(nian),全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)凈(jing)增(zeng)4755萬(wan)戶(hu),總數(shu)(shu)達(da)到18.24億(yi)(yi)(yi)戶(hu)。其(qi)中(zhong),移(yi)(yi)動電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)總數(shu)(shu)16.43億(yi)(yi)(yi)戶(hu),全(quan)年(nian)凈(jing)增(zeng)4875萬(wan)戶(hu),普及率為116.3部/百人(ren)(ren),比(bi)上年(nian)末提高3.4部/百人(ren)(ren)。2022年(nian)1-4月(yue),全(quan)國(guo)電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)總數(shu)(shu)達(da)18.43億(yi)(yi)(yi)戶(hu),移(yi)(yi)動電(dian)(dian)話(hua)(hua)用(yong)戶(hu)總數(shu)(shu)16.61億(yi)(yi)(yi)戶(hu)。
4、手機出貨量分析
根(gen)據中國信(xin)息通信(xin)研(yan)究(jiu)院統計(ji)數(shu)據顯示,2016-2020年(nian)我(wo)國手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)市(shi)場出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)呈逐年(nian)下(xia)降趨(qu)勢(shi),手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)連續五年(nian)承(cheng)壓。2021年(nian)全年(nian)國內(nei)市(shi)場手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)累計(ji)3.51億(yi)(yi)部,同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)13.9%,為近六(liu)年(nian)來手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)首(shou)次正向增(zeng)長(chang)(chang);其中,5G手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)2.66億(yi)(yi)部,同比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)63.5%。2022年(nian)1-4月,國內(nei)市(shi)場手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)總(zong)體(ti)(ti)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)累計(ji)8742.5萬部,同比下(xia)降30.3%,其中,5G手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)6846.9萬部,同比下(xia)降25.0%,占同期手(shou)(shou)機(ji)(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)(liang)的78.3%。
5、通信手持機產量分(fen)析
國(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)統計局(ju)數據顯(xian)示,2012-2021年我國(guo)(guo)(guo)移(yi)動(dong)(dong)通(tong)信(xin)手(shou)持機(ji)(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量呈波動(dong)(dong)遞增(zeng)(zeng)趨勢上漲。其中,2016年我國(guo)(guo)(guo)移(yi)動(dong)(dong)通(tong)信(xin)手(shou)持機(ji)(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量達(da)226108.7萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),同比增(zeng)(zeng)長20.3%,移(yi)動(dong)(dong)通(tong)信(xin)手(shou)持機(ji)(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量及產(chan)(chan)(chan)量同比增(zeng)(zeng)長率均(jun)達(da)到近年來的峰值。2021年全國(guo)(guo)(guo)移(yi)動(dong)(dong)通(tong)信(xin)手(shou)持機(ji)(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量為166151.6萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),同比增(zeng)(zeng)長7.0%;2022年1-4月,全國(guo)(guo)(guo)移(yi)動(dong)(dong)通(tong)信(xin)手(shou)持機(ji)(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量達(da)48071.5萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai),同比下(xia)降(jiang)1.3%。
6、移動基站總數逐(zhu)年遞增(zeng),5G基站總量占全球60%以上
根據(ju)工信(xin)部統計,2021年,全(quan)(quan)(quan)國移動通信(xin)基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)總數(shu)(shu)達996萬個(ge),全(quan)(quan)(quan)年凈增65萬個(ge)。其(qi)中4G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)達590萬個(ge),5G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)為142.5萬個(ge),全(quan)(quan)(quan)年新(xin)建5G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)超65萬個(ge),我國已開(kai)通5G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)數(shu)(shu)量全(quan)(quan)(quan)球排名第一,5G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)總量占全(quan)(quan)(quan)球60%以上,每萬人擁(yong)有(you)5G基(ji)站(zhan)(zhan)數(shu)(shu)達到10.1個(ge)。
7、移動通信基站設(she)備產量分析
國(guo)(guo)家(jia)統計局數據(ju)顯示(shi),2015-2022年我(wo)國(guo)(guo)移(yi)動通(tong)信(xin)基(ji)(ji)(ji)站設(she)備(bei)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)整體(ti)呈上升趨(qu)勢變(bian)化;其中,2018年以(yi)來隨著5G建設(she)加快,推動了移(yi)動通(tong)信(xin)基(ji)(ji)(ji)站設(she)備(bei)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)的(de)大(da)幅增長(chang),2018年我(wo)國(guo)(guo)移(yi)動通(tong)信(xin)基(ji)(ji)(ji)站設(she)備(bei)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)達(da)43225.2萬(wan)(wan)信(xin)道,同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)58.7%;2021年,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)移(yi)動通(tong)信(xin)基(ji)(ji)(ji)站設(she)備(bei)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)達(da)541.9萬(wan)(wan)射(she)(she)頻(pin)模塊,同比(bi)(bi)下降39.4%;2022年1-4月,我(wo)國(guo)(guo)移(yi)動通(tong)信(xin)基(ji)(ji)(ji)站設(she)備(bei)產(chan)量(liang)(liang)達(da)263.5萬(wan)(wan)射(she)(she)頻(pin)模塊,同比(bi)(bi)增長(chang)25.9%。
行業競爭格局
1、區域競爭:廣東(dong)省移動(dong)通信手持機最多
由于(yu)經濟較發達(da)地(di)區人口基數較大,對移(yi)動(dong)通信(xin)設備的需(xu)求(qiu)也較大,目前(qian)我國(guo)移(yi)動(dong)通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機產(chan)(chan)量(liang)主要集中在東南部經濟較發達(da)地(di)區。2021年全(quan)年,廣東省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)移(yi)動(dong)通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機產(chan)(chan)量(liang)全(quan)國(guo)最多,達(da)66965.4萬臺(tai)(tai),約占(zhan)全(quan)國(guo)通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機總(zong)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)的40.30%;進入前(qian)十(shi)的城市(shi)(shi)(shi)還包括河南省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、四川省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、北(bei)京市(shi)(shi)(shi)、江(jiang)西省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、重(zhong)慶(qing)市(shi)(shi)(shi)、湖北(bei)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、陜西省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)、江(jiang)蘇省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)和浙江(jiang)省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。但是可(ke)以看到,這些(xie)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)的通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機產(chan)(chan)量(liang)梯級分布較明顯,如(ru)排名第十(shi)的浙江(jiang)通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機產(chan)(chan)量(liang)為3214.5萬臺(tai)(tai),與廣東省(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的通信(xin)手(shou)持(chi)機產(chan)(chan)量(liang)相差近21倍。
2、企(qi)業競爭:vivo、OPPO、小米、蘋果(guo)、榮耀(yao)占據(ju)手機出貨(huo)量前(qian)五名
根據國(guo)際數據公司(IDC)數據,按出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)來(lai)看,2021全年(nian)(nian)中國(guo)智能手機(ji)市場(chang)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)前五的廠商(shang)分別為:vivo、OPPO、小米、蘋(pin)果、榮(rong)耀,手機(ji)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)分別約為7100萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)、6710萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)、5110萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)、5030萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)和3860萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai)。其中,蘋(pin)果2021年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)在中國(guo)市場(chang)出(chu)(chu)貨量(liang)自2015年(nian)(nian)以來(lai)再次突破5000萬(wan)臺(tai)(tai),年(nian)(nian)度同(tong)比增(zeng)幅(fu)近40%,為前五大廠商(shang)中增(zeng)速最(zui)快。
2022年一季度,中(zhong)國智能手機市場出貨量前五(wu)的廠商分(fen)別為(wei):OPPO、榮耀、vivo、蘋(pin)果和小米,手機出貨量分(fen)別約為(wei)1370萬臺(tai)、1350萬臺(tai)、1330萬臺(tai)、1240萬臺(tai)和1100萬臺(tai)。
就市(shi)場(chang)(chang)份(fen)額來看,2021全年vivo、OPPO、小米(mi)、蘋果、榮(rong)耀的市(shi)場(chang)(chang)份(fen)額為(wei)別為(wei)21.5%、20.4%、15.5%、15.3%和11.7%,其他廠商(shang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)份(fen)額合計為(wei)15.6%。
2022年第(di)一季度,OPPO、榮耀(yao)、vivo、蘋(pin)果和小米的市場份額為別18.5%、18.2%、17.9%、16.7%和14.9%,其他廠商市場份額合計為13.7%。
行業發展前景及趨勢預測
1、“十四(si)五”時期,推進通信設備制(zhi)造(zao)行業節(jie)能減排和綠色發(fa)展,全面建設新型數字基礎設施
2、“十四五”通信設備(bei)制造(zao)行業發(fa)展趨勢(shi):基(ji)礎設施建(jian)設能力顯(xian)著提高,向國際一流(liu)水平邁進
初(chu)步預測至2027年(nian)末,我(wo)國規模以上通信設備制造業(ye)營業(ye)收入或將突破(po)81000億(yi)元。
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